Hey folks, sorry I’ve been “gone” so long, but I’ve been incredibly busy doing much more enjoyable things than tackling global stupidity head-on.
Nonetheless, the other day, I saw Maia Sandu, the president of the Republic of Moldova, declare that Moldova is in a new “state of emergency” and that yet more lockdowns are imminent.
Furthermore, she went on camera to dolefully announce (🇲🇩) that “one person dies of Covid-19 in Moldova every single hour” and how this proves that the country is experiencing a severe medical crisis.
Last, but certainly not least, Moldova has achieved the rank of number three in the world in terms of Covid-19 deaths per capita.
It all sounds like doom and gloom, am I right?
Yet when I looked at the numbers, I pumped my fist in celebration.
Let’s Go to the Videotape
To begin with, March has been a very, very “bad” month for Moldova.
Daily Covid deaths are not 24 people/day but actually much higher, in the low 30s (🇲🇩), so it’s actually closer to one and a half person that dies per hour.
Yet this is extremely, extremely good news.
And I can prove it with just three numbers.
First Number – Deaths per Day
The news in Moldova helpfully publishes not just the total number of Covid-19 deaths but breaks them down by age and comorbidity.
If you read Romanian, feel free to read this information yourself.
On a spreadsheet, I inputted the data for three days: March 18, 19, and 20 (this year).
The reason I chose three days was to get a more representative sampling (as opposed to looking only at one day).
On March 18, 19, and 20, there were a total of 97 Covid-19 deaths for an average of 32 and one-third people dying per day.
Yet in 2018, the last year for which official statistics (in Romanian and English) are available, you’ll see that a total of 37,200 people died from all causes.
This averages out to 102 people dying per day or 305 people dying every three days.
Looking at these numbers, one of three things must be true:
- Deaths are down two-thirds in 2021 – If the daily “death count” includes all deaths, not just Covid deaths, then 33 people dying per day is way, way better than 102 per day, and people should be dancing and celebrating in the streets.
- Deaths are up by one-third in 2021 – If the same number of people are dying per day in Moldova as in 2018 (102/day) plus an “extra” 32 Covid-19 deaths, then Moldova is undergoing the apocalypse.
- Covid deaths are just a portion of total deaths – If total deaths are the same, and only the cause of death is different (i.e. Covid instead of cancer), then there is no health emergency.
Can we tell which one of the above three is true?
Yes, we can.
By looking at the 2018 numbers, we see that suicides totaled 489 or just over one per day (an average of four people committed suicide every three days), and yet there is zero mention of the number of suicides this year. Therefore, unless suicides went to zero (and in Japan, the only country that publishes real-time numbers, they went up by 38% last year), then the total death count is definitely not being published as part of the daily Covid briefing.
Secondly, if the death toll in 2021 was 102/day from “normal” causes PLUS the “extra” Covid-19 deaths of 32/day, then it would be impossible for cemeteries and funeral homes to keep up with a 30% jump in “customers.” And so far, there are no reports of “overloaded” funeral homes, etc.
Therefore, we can look at the daily Covid-19 deaths and realize that they are just a portion of all total deaths.
In other words, if the death rate is unchanged since 2018, then 32 people per day are dying “of” Covid-19 and 70 are dying from something else, most likely heart disease (which killed 21,603 people in 2018 (or 59% of all deaths) as discussed in greater detail in my article about Jamie Oliver).
If the news reported, for example, the heart disease deaths per day in comparison to Covid-19 deaths, that would immediately show that Covid-19 is not even close to being the most dangerous thing out there.
Unfortunately, no one is publishing the total number of deaths per day in Moldova, so we’ll need to analyze two other numbers to get a more complete idea of what is going on.
Number two – Age of death
In 2018, a total of 37,200 people died.
Of those deaths, 24,288 deaths occurred in people over age 60 for an average of 66.5/day.
Yet from March 18-20, 2021, there were 80 Covid-19 deaths of people over the age of 60 or just 20 per day. Clearly then, Covid-19 in 2021 is far less lethal to elderly people than all the diseases that were killing them back in 2018.
In 2018, only 65% of all deaths reported were of people age 60 and up, whereas in 2021, 82% of all Covid-19 deaths are in people age 60 and up.
In other words, Covid-19 is almost exclusively lethal to elderly people.
Lastly, life expectancy in Moldova in 2018 was 71.8 years old. The average age of someone dying from Covid-19 is 68.2, a virtually identical number.
These numbers tell us a) mostly old people die from Covid-19, and b) people with Covid are dying, on average, at the same age as they were dying in 2018.
Number three – Upper respiratory deaths
Back in 2018, diseases such as bronchitis, asthma, pneumonia, and the flu all still existed and were killing people.
Indeed, 1,566 people died from upper respiratory diseases or 4.3/day (12.8/3 days) in 2018.
Yet in 2021, an average of 3 people/day died from respiratory problems caused by Covid-19 or 9 total in the period of March 18-20, 2021.
Since we know that not a single case (🇲🇩) of the flu or pneumonia has been reported this year in Moldova, what happens if we assume that Covid-19 is identical to the flu and other upper respiratory problems?
Again, four people died per day from upper respiratory problems in 2018 while just three per day are dying exclusively of Covid-19 (i.e. no other major underlying health problems) in 2021.
Since there are ZERO upper respiratory deaths this year (not caused by Covid), we can see quite clearly that the 2018 upper respiratory death numbers are pretty much identical to the numbers of people dying exclusively from Covid-19 in 2021.
- Almost everyone dying from Covid-19 is over 60 years old.
- People with Covid are dying at the same age in 2021 as non-Covid people were dying in 2018.
- Covid-ONLY deaths in 2021 are virtually identical to upper respiratory disease deaths in 2018.
In other words, it continues to be absolutely ludicrous to destroy life as we know it to stop Covid-19 because Covid-19 doesn’t need stopping.
And Covid-19 isn’t killing anyone “early” (before they would have died anyway from other causes).
Furthermore, Covid-19 is no more (and no less) dangerous to people than the flu, pneumonia, bronchitis, and asthma were before Covid-19 completely replaced all of them.
And all you need to do is spend five minutes looking at the numbers to see this.
In a sane world, all the masks, social distancing, vaccines, zoom meetings, online schools, and other nonsense would be abolished immediately.
But we all know that sanity has nothing to do with anything anymore, alas.